Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy of outburst prediction, according to the actual situations of no.2 coal seam of xiaotun coal mine,the mathematical analysis method is adopted to determine the prediction and forecast sensitive indicators and the critical value of coal and gas outburst in tunnelling face by laboratory investigation and sensitive indicators of the track.The research results show that,the prediction effects are improved,the range of outburst prevention technique measures are reduced and the cost of outburst prevention is reduced as well.

Key words: Outburst prediction, sensitive indicators, mathematical analysis