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Modern Mining ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (11): 157-161,168.

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Research and Application on Tailings Dam Displacement Prediction Model Based on Deep Learning

  

  1. School of Civil Engineering,University of Science and Technology Liaoning
  • Online:2025-11-25 Published:2025-12-23

Abstract: To grasp the deformation trend of the dam body and avoid the dam failure of the tailings pond,a displacement prediction model of the tailings dam based on N-BEATSx is constructed. Firstly,the original monitoring data is preprocessed. The Z-Score method is adopted to identify and eliminate outliers. The Savitzky-Golay filter is used to smooth the data with excluded outliers,and the missing data is filled in through the linear interpolation method to ensure the integrity of the data. Then,the influencing factors of dam body deformation were analyzed by using the Grey Relational Degree(GRA),and ten influencing fac⁃ tors such as temperature,time,reservoir water pressure and rainfall were determined as input variables. Fi⁃ nally,the N-BEATSx model is used to predict the future deformation trend of the dam body. The results show that when this model uses 30 days of historical data to predict the displacement change trend of the dam body in the next 30 days,it achieves high prediction accuracy. The average root mean square error of the horizontal displacement prediction is 0.098 mm,and the average mean square error is 0.012 mm². The average root mean square error of vertical displacement prediction is 0.015 mm,and the average mean square error is 0.025 mm². This research can provide certain references for the displacement prediction and management of tailings dam.

Key words: N-BEATSx model, Grey Relational Degree, dam displacement prediction