Abstract: Uranium ore price is the most important factors of the investment risk,the price forecast accurate or not is directly related to the investment success or failure.According to the uranium ore price data from 1989 to 2009,the time series mode is established based on MATLAB numerical analysis software,the comparison analysis of the prediction results of ES model and DMA model and the actual data is conducted to discuss the scientific and practicability of the time series model of several uranium ore prices,the results show that:①the greater the smoothing coefficient,the standard error of prediction is small;②among the four methods,the third-index flatness model is the best one,the calculated results of the model is basically consistent with the actual data;③under the condition that only the time series properties are considered,the uranium ore price can be gradually increasing.

Key words: Uranium ore price, Time series, ES model, DMA model, Price prediction