关键词: 导水裂隙带高度, Spearman相关系数, 灰色关联度, 多元线性回归

Abstract: To improve the accuracy of predicting the height of water-conducting fracture zones in coal mines in the northwestern region，and to clarify the main influencing factors and their action patterns， 50 sets of measured data on the height of water-conducting fracture zones in this area were collected. The factors of coal seam burial depth，mining height，working face inclination length，and inclination angle were selected as the influencing indicators. The Spearman correlation coefficient，grey correlation degree analysis，and multiple linear regression method were comprehensively used to analyze the influencing fac⁃ tors of the height of water-conducting fracture zones and to construct a prediction model for the height of water-conducting fracture zones. The results show that the mining height and coal seam burial depth are significantly positively correlated with the height of water-conducting fracture zones，with Spearman corre⁃ lation coefficients of 0.794 and 0.745 respectively，and they are the dominant factors controlling the height of water-conducting fracture zones；the overall correlation between the working face inclination length and inclination angle is weak. The grey correlation degree analysis indicates that there are phased differences in the degree of influence of different factors under different mining heights. When the mining height is less than 9 m，the influence order is mining height，working face inclination length，coal seam burial depth， and inclination angle；when the mining height is greater than 9 m，the influence of coal seam burial depth increases，and the influence order is mining height，coal seam burial depth，working face inclination length，and inclination angle. Based on this，two multiple linear regression prediction models were estab⁃ lished，with average relative errors of 11.99% and 13.41%，which are significantly lower than the calcula⁃ tion errors of the normative empirical formulas，indicating that the established models have good prediction accuracy and regional applicability，and can provide a reference for the prevention of roof water disasters and the prediction of the height of water-conducting fracture zones in coal mines in the northwestern region.

Key words: the height of water flowing fractured zone, Spearman correlation coefficient, grey correla? tion degree, multivariate linear regression