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现代矿业 ›› 2024, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (04): 191-.
分析研判区域地质灾害的分布特征和影响因素，有利于矿区防灾减灾与可持续发展。
以钢铁基地攀枝花市为研究区，收集研究区历史地质灾害471处，梳理主要矿山189座，选择高程、坡
度、断裂带等作为分析因子。分别对地质灾害和矿山做核密度分析，研究两者空间相关性；在此基础
上利用 CatBoost机器学习方法，定量分析各影响因子对研究区地质灾害的影响。结果显示，地质灾
害与矿山具有较强的空间相关性；矿山核密度和降雨对地质灾害的影响最大，分别为 32.00% 和
25.10%，其次为地区距铁路和活动断层的距离。研究表明，研究区矿业活动对地质灾害的发生具有
显著影响，建议合理规划区域矿业开采活动，做好地质灾害监测预警工作，促进区域可持续发展。
The analysis of the distribution characteristics of regional geological disasters and the influ⁃
encing factors of disasters is conducive to disaster prevention and mitigation and sustainable development in
mining areas.Taking Panzhihua City，a steel base，as the research area，471 historical geological disasters
in the research area were collected，189 main mines were sorted out，and elevation，slope and fault zone
were selected as analysis factors.The kernel density analysis of geological disasters and mines is carried out
to study the spatial correlation between the two.On this basis，the CatBoost machine learning method is used
to quantitatively analyze the influence of each influencing factor on geological disasters in the study area.The
results show that there is a strong spatial correlation between geological disasters and mines.The nuclear den⁃
sity and rainfall of mine have the greatest impact on geological disasters，which are 32.00% and 25.10%，re⁃
spectively，followed by the distance from the railway and active faults to the area. The research shows that
the mining activities in the study area have a significant impact on the occurrence of geological disasters.It is
recommended to rationally plan regional mining activities，do a good job in geological disaster monitoring
and early warning，and promote regional sustainable development.
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