关键词: 河堤决口, 溃堤洪水, 层次分析法, 风险评价, ArcGIS

Abstract: In order to evaluate the risk that the influx of flood from mines near the banks of rivers and lakes,river breaks and flood submerged subarea models are established respectively.Firstly,based on the one-dimensional hydrodynamic model of river and gradient-rupture coupling model,combing with the hydraulic parameters,such as flow rate and water level at the crevasse of the river embankment,the prediction model of river bank breakage is established;secondly,the influencing factors of the inundation flooding process are analyzed,and the weights of each influencing factors are obtained by using analytic hierarchy process,the floodwater submergence subarea model is obtained by combing the total value of the obstructive factors of the wellhead to the embankment sections,so as to evaluate the flood flooding risk caused by river bank breakage.Based on the flooding accident data of Shandong Xintai Coal Mine in 2007,the ArcGIS analysis of the risk zoning in the study area is conducted by using the above models.The analysis results is consistence to the actual situations,which show that the models established in this paper can be used to efficiently and effectively evaluate the flooding risk in the mines near the banks of rivers and lakes.

Key words: River bank breakage, Flooding of embankments, Analytic hierarchy process, Risk assessment, ArcGIS