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现代矿业 2018, Vol. 34 Issue (11) :175-180    DOI:
安全·职业健康 最新目录 | 下期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 << Previous Articles | Next Articles >>
河堤决口预测及溃堤洪水的矿井风险评价模型
胡苏安,何盈利,姜宝元,余子文,高岳*
中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院
Mine Risk Evaluation Model of the Prediction of River Bank Breakage and Flooding of Embankments
Hu Su'an,He Yingli,Jiang Baoyuan,Yu Ziwen,Gao Yue*
School of Resources and Geoscience, China University of Mining and Technology

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摘要 为对河湖堤岸附近的矿井洪水涌入风险进行评价,分别建立了河堤决口预测模型及溃堤洪水淹没分区模型。首先以河道一维水力学模型与渐变决口耦合模型为基础,结合河堤决口处的流量、水位等水力参数,建立了河堤决口预测模型;然后分析了溃堤洪水淹没过程的影响因素,并运用层次分析法得到了各影响因子的权重,再结合矿井井口到河堤各区段路线的阻碍因子总值构建了溃堤洪水淹没分区模型,从而对堤坝决口的洪水淹井风险进行安全评价。结合2007年山东新泰煤矿洪水淹井事故数据,采用前述方法进行了ArcGIS分析,并进行了研究区堤坝风险分区。分析结果与实际情况吻合,表明所构建的模型可以快速有效的对河湖堤岸附近的矿井洪水涌入风险进行评价。
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胡苏安
何盈利
姜宝元
余子文
高岳
关键词河堤决口   溃堤洪水   层次分析法   风险评价   ArcGIS     
Abstract: In order to evaluate the risk that the influx of flood from mines near the banks of rivers and lakes,river breaks and flood submerged subarea models are established respectively.Firstly,based on the one-dimensional hydrodynamic model of river and gradient-rupture coupling model,combing with the hydraulic parameters,such as flow rate and water level at the crevasse of the river embankment,the prediction model of river bank breakage is established;secondly,the influencing factors of the inundation flooding process are analyzed,and the weights of each influencing factors are obtained by using analytic hierarchy process,the floodwater submergence subarea model is obtained by combing the total value of the obstructive factors of the wellhead to the embankment sections,so as to evaluate the flood flooding risk caused by river bank breakage.Based on the flooding accident data of Shandong Xintai Coal Mine in 2007,the ArcGIS analysis of the risk zoning in the study area is conducted by using the above models.The analysis results is consistence to the actual situations,which show that the models established in this paper can be used to efficiently and effectively evaluate the flooding risk in the mines near the banks of rivers and lakes.
KeywordsRiver bank breakage   Flooding of embankments   Analytic hierarchy process   Risk assessment   ArcGIS     
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* 博士后基金面上项目(编号:2016M601913)。

引用本文:   
胡苏安, 何盈利, 姜宝元, 余子文, 高岳.河堤决口预测及溃堤洪水的矿井风险评价模型[J]  现代矿业, 2018,V34(11): 175-180
HU Su-An, HE Ying-Li, JIANG Bao-Yuan, YU Zi-Wen, GAO Yue.Mine Risk Evaluation Model of the Prediction of River Bank Breakage and Flooding of Embankments[J]  Modern Mining, 2018,V34(11): 175-180
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