Taking Hami Honghai 11031 working face as the study area, through the set surface movement deformation observation, field observations data information, analyzed the data processing, obtained various angular parameters (boundary angle, mobile angle, crack angle), the dynamic parameters (starting from, impact Angle, advancing distance, etc.) in advance, estimated parameters (subsidence coefficient q, main influencing tangent tan beta, inflection point move from S, mining influence spread angle theta). Based on the rock shift parameters, the probability integral method is used to predict the surface subsidence, and the visualization model is obtained. On the basis of this, it is analyzed that it mainly caused land damage such as subsidence and surface crack. To provide guidance for the surface recovery of mined-out area.