关键词: 一元线性回归, 灰色理论, 煤炭产量, 预测, 对比

Abstract: To predict the coal production in China, one-dimensional linear regression prediction model and GM（1,1）model were established separately, the predicted results were comparative analyzed. The result shows that prediction accuracy of GM（1,1）model is much higher than one-dimensional linear regression prediction model, which is much suitable to predict the development trend of coal production in China. Coal Production prediction result of GM（1,1）model indicates that coal production in China will show a stable increasing trend in the future 2 years. The production is 3.483 billion ton and 3.782 billion ton, and the growth rate is 7.5% and 8.5%, respectively.

Key words: One-dimensional linear regression, Grey theory, Coal production, Prediction, Comparison